Friday 25 October 2019

WHY A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CONFLICT, CLIMATE CHANGE AND PEACE SHOULD INTEREST YOU

Melting Glaciers over time


The Ugandan Newspaper Daily - New Vision, in it's 6th March, 2016 issue in a piece entitled. "Rwenzori Melting Glaciers worry environmentalists" reported that high melting rate of glaciers atop Mt. Rwenzori. Located in the Western part of Uganda, Rwenzori Mountain also known as the Mountains of the Moon are snow capped and a major tourist attraction. John Magezi, a researcher covered in the piece links the alarming rate of melting glaciers (glacial recession)  to Climate change especially to higher air temperatures and and less snow accumulation; warning that that some animals species on the mountain may face extinction as they had adapted to the cool climate but the climate is now changing. This is especially so considering that the percentage ice loss on Mt. Baker at 96%; followed by Mt. Speke at 91% and Mt. Stanley wit the lowest at 69%.



The impact of Climate Change on the Rwenzoris can better be understood by considering the role of the Tourism Industry to the nation. From  the Tourism sector Budget framework paper for Financial Year 2019/20, we gather that tourism continues to be a leading foreign exchange earner to the Ugandan economy generating USD 1,453 million compared to USD 1,371 million in 2016. It is no doubt that the tourists to the Rwenzoris make a major contribution to these amounts. Moreso fr the business revenues of many enterprises and community around the mountain that benefit from the regular hiking expeditions. The fast rate of melting of glaciers means the portion of tourists interested in hiking to see the snow-covered peaks and  other flora and fauna might reduce in the coming years significantly affecting not just the national economy in general but also the livelihoods of communities and enterprises that depend directly on tourism. 



The United Nations Sustainable Development Goal #13 focuses on "Climate Action." It notes that thee is no country that is not experiencing the drastic effects of climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions are more than 50% higher in 1990. Supporting vulnerable regions will directly contribute not only to Goal #13 but also to other SDGs. As of 2017, humans are estimated to have caused approximately 1.0 degrees Centigrade of global warming above pre-industrial levels. There is also an estimate that the energy sector alone will create around 18 million more jobs by 2030, focused specifically on sustainable energy


The Global Peace Index 2019 developed by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) which ranks 163 Independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness is the World’s leading measure of Global Peacefulness as it covers 99.7% of world’s population using 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators from highly respected sources and measures the state of peace using three thematic domains: Level of Societal Safety and Security; Extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict; and the Degree of Militarization


It states that the effects of climate change pose a major challenge to peacefulness in the coming decade. Environmental risks of climate change and resource scarcity had the highest likelihood of and impact out of five risk categories including economic, geopolitical, societal, technological, and environmental threats, as estimated by World Economic Forum 



it further mentions that dealing with the negative trends of peacefulness becomes even more crucial when looking at the potential impact of climate change on peace. An estimated 971 million people live in areas with high or very high climate change exposure, of which 41% (400 million) reside in countries which already have low levels of peacefulness. The effects of climate change pose a major challenge to peacefulness in the coming decade especially on factors such as Resource Scarcity, Livelihood Security, and Displacement can greatly increase the risk of future violent conflict. 


It also mentions that Climate Change can indirectly increase the likelihood of violent conflict through its impacts on Resource availability, livelihood, security and migration. In order to address these challenges, there will be need for much greater cooperation both within and between countries. The IEP SDG 16+ report notes that extremely high temperatures in most of the places where people live with extreme lows at night at night. Available content shows that climate has played a role in triggering or exacerbating conflict through its effects on livelihood security and resource availability. 



The effects of climate change create resource scarcity and livelihood insecurity giving rise to localized conflict over common resources which can in turn put stress on different aspects of peacefulness such as GPI indicators of refugees and IDPs; Intensity of Organised Internal Conflict; and a number and duration of internal and external conflicts, while ease of access to small arms and light weapons can facilitate or exacerbate violent conflicts


Climate induced migration and resource scarcity are expected to create millions of climate refugees, driving up the number of refugees and IDPs and affecting relations with neighboring countries. Anthony Mwangi reporting about the impact of floods in Uganda on the site https://www.ifrc.org/ar/news-and-media/news-stories/africa/uganda/floods-continue-to-ravage-uganda/ sttes that as floods continue to ravage different parts of Uganda, a number of areas are experiencing severe effects of floods that have displaced up to 300,000 people. The Uganda Meteorological Department estimates that the above normal rains are expected to continue in the coming weeks in te country, with the North Eastern and Eastern parts of the country most affected. In recent times, heavy rains around the Mount Elgon region have resulted in mudslides that have wrecked havoc destroying life and property in their path downhill. Entire villages have been destroyed and livelihoods of many families destroyed. Those who survived such disasters have been forced to flee and in other instances government has had to resettle such communities in other areas.


While there has been considerable effort by the Government to implement mechanisms targeted to supported such afflicted communities, concerns still arise on issues relating to relationship of Internally Displaced People, Refugees, Hot Communities in relation to harmonious co-existence and sharing of scarce resources like Water. Such acts of nature, however horrible, greatly remind us of the powerful forces of nature and how efforts must be galvanized to protect it and its resources in a sustainable manner


This discussion has showed through that Climate Change is a reality of our times and that it is affecting us in many ways than meets the eye. It has also showed a correlation between climate change and peace showing potential for conflict. Countries, especially the third world with poor copying mechanisms to adverse effects of climate change are more likely to be adversely affected. As such, citizens and governments in such countries must take the lead in developing and implementing Climate-sensitive policies and practices in their way of life to curtail potential climate change disasters. Now is the time to plant more trees and reduce on the deforestation rate; adopt to modern farming methods that strive for environmental conservation; pursue Development with sustainability accompanying the planning and embracing the high growing population as a demographic dividend engaging them in environmental protection and conservation campaigns linked to improvement in their livelihoods, so that they are better motivated champions of the cause

I thank you 

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